FROM THE POLLSTER'S MOUTH TO YOU KNOW WHOSE EARS – AT 8:13 A.M. ET:  A Republican Senate?  It is, to some, but a dream.  It's an important dream, though, for the Senate confirms Supreme Court justices and ratifies treaties, two processes that could do long-term fatal damage to the essence of America.

But a Republican Senate may be possible.  From The Politico:

It’s a hope so audacious that few Republicans will even acknowledge it out loud: the possibility that the balance of power in the Senate might be up for grabs in November. The GOP would have to take 10 seats, knocking off virtually every targeted Democratic incumbent and sweeping the open seats held by both parties.

A new poll conducted for American Crossroads, the independent conservative group founded by Karl Rove and former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie, suggests the 2010 landscape might be just volatile enough to give Republicans at least a chance at that prize...

....taken together, the results suggest Republicans have an opening to make substantial gains this fall, even to the point of putting the Democrats’ 59-seat majority in peril. In eight seats currently held by Democrats – Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Washington – Republican candidates average an edge of seven points over their Democratic opponents, leading 47 percent to 40 percent.

In five Republican-held seats – Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio – GOP candidates hold an average lead of eight points, 45 percent to 37 percent.

But let's be careful about interpreting the data:

...the poll doesn’t mean Democrats are likely to lose the Senate – it doesn’t even mean definitively that the Senate is in play. For Republicans to take control of the chamber, they would have to win every seat named in the survey, plus two more from a list of Democratic incumbents topped by Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold and California Sen. Barbara Boxer. Republicans would also have to maintain control of Louisiana Sen. David Vitter and North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr’s seats, which Democrats have vowed to target.

However...

To American Crossroads, however, the point of the poll is the big picture: the voters who will ultimately decide the fate of the Senate campaign are mad as hell, and seem unlikely to take it anymore.

COMMENT:  The reality is that the election is almost three months away, several lifetimes in politics.  This White House will not fold easily.  The scare campaigns – Republicans will take away your Social Security, Medicare, and even your Viagra – have only just begun.  And Democratic giveaways may provide crucial votes in key states.  If you rob Peter to pay Paul, Paul will vote for you. 

Republicans must run as if they're 20 points behind.  And they must come up with a positive program to present to America.  Most important, they must provide a photographic portrait, so to speak, of an America run by Obama Democrats, starting with a bankrupt Treasury.

August 10, 2010